Global Warming Cost Shock

Global Warming Cost Shock

May 2008 - If global warming continues 
unchecked, by 2100, New York City will feel like Las Vegas does today and 
San Francisco will have a climate comparable to that of today's New 
Orleans. In 2100, Boston will have average temperatures like those in 
Memphis, Tennessee today.
 
These higher temperatures will be uncomfortable financially as well as 
physically, according to a report released Thursday by researchers at 
Tufts University, commissioned by the Natural Resources Defense Council, 
NRDC.
 
Over the next 100 years, global warming will increase the average 
temperature across most of the United States by 13 degrees Fahrenheit and 
by 18 degrees in Alaska, the report estimates. 

"Some important impacts are priceless, so the real situation is worse than 
the numbers can convey," said the report's lead author, Frank Ackerman. 
"But the numbers, for those impacts we can put prices on, are bad enough. 
Climate change is on a collision course with the U.S. economy, long before 
the end of the century, unless we act now." 

The Tufts researchers present two ways of estimating the costs of inaction 
on climate change. 

A comprehensive estimate based on state-of-the-art computer modeling finds 
that doing nothing on global warming will cost the United States economy 
more than 3.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, by 2100. That 
amounts to $3.8 trillion annually in today's dollars. 

On the other hand, a detailed, bottom-up analysis finds that four 
categories of global warming impacts - hurricane damage, real estate 
losses, increased energy costs and water costs - will add up to a price 
tag of 1.8 percent of GDP by 2100. That's almost $1.9 trillion annually in 
today's dollars.
 
Dan Lashof, director of NRDC's Climate Center, said, "The longer we wait, 
the more painful and expensive the consequences will be. This report's 
findings are undeniable - we must act now."
 
"The Climate Security Act currently in the U.S. Senate is our best 
opportunity to set a concrete limit on global warming pollution and 
provide an accompanying market that rewards companies for making real 
reductions," Lashof said. 

Also known as the Lieberman-Warner bill for its authors - Connecticut 
Independent Senator Joe Lieberman and Virginia Republican Senator John 
Warner - the bill was introduced last October and approved by the Senate 
Committee on Environment and Public Works in December 2007. It is expected 
to be debated in the full Senate in early June.
 
The bill would impose emission limits on electric utility, transportation, 
and manufacturing industries under a national cap-and-trade system for 
greenhouse gas emissions. 

Polluters would mostly be allocated right-to-emit credits based on how 
much greenhouse gas they currently emit. The cap would get tighter over 
time, until by 2050, emissions would be reduced to 63 percent below 2005 
levels. 

Presently, greenhouse gases emitted in the United States are not subject 
to regulation. 

"Many economic models have attempted to capture the costs of climate 
change for the United States," the report states. "For the most part, 
however, these analyses grossly underestimate costs by making predictions 
that are out of step with the scientific consensus on the daunting scope 
of climatic changes and the urgent need to reduce global warming 
emissions." 

For its model, the report's authors referred to "The Economics of Climate 
Change," a report commissioned by the British government and released in 
2006, also known as the Stern Review after its author, Sir Nicholas Stern. 

"We used a revised version of the Stern Review's model to provide a more 
accurate, comprehensive picture of the cost of global warming to the U.S. 
economy," Ackerman and his colleagues explain. 

Global warming is already melting sea ice and glaciers that will 
contribute to sea level rise. Sea level is expected to rise 23 inches in 
2050 and 45 inches by 2100, with grave impacts expected for the low-lying 
coastal communities of the southeastern United States. 

By 2100, an estimated $360 billion per year will be spent on damaged or 
destroyed residential coastal real estate in the United States as a result 
of the rising sea levels, the Tufts report shows.
 
The effects of climate change will also be felt in the form of more severe 
heat waves, hurricanes, droughts, and other erratic weather events and in 
their impact on our economy's bottom line. 

"Curbing global warming pollution will require a substantial investment, 
but the cost of doing nothing will be far greater," the authors conclude. 
"Immediate action can save lives, avoid trillions of dollars of economic 
damage, and put us on a path to solving one of the greatest challenges of 
the 21st century."  



	
Global Warming Price Tag in Specific U.S. Regions - 2025 through 2100


 
 Cost in billions of 2006 dollars
  
U.S. Regions Most at Risk
  


  
2025
  
2050
  
2075
  
2100


  
 Hurricane Damages
  
$10
  
$43
  
$142
  
$422
  
 Atlantic & Gulf Coast states


  
 Real Estate Losses
  
$34
  
$80
  
$173
  
$360
  
 Atlantic & Gulf Coast states


  
 Energy-Sector Costs
  
$28
  
$47
  
$82
  
$141
  
 Southeast & Southwest


  
 Water Costs
  
$200
  
$336
  
$565
  
$950
  
 Western states


  

   
  
$271
  
$506
  
$961
  
$1,873
  

---