Major Storms Predicted to Hit Atlantic Basin Yet

Major Storms Predicted to Hit Atlantic Basin Yet



August, 2008 - Government weather

forecasters said today that they expect two more named storms and

hurricanes to form in the Atlantic Basin this year than they predicted in

May, and warned of an increased likelihood that 2008 will be an

above-normal hurricane season.

In its August update to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, released

today, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center projects an 85 percent probability

of an above-normal season - up from 65 percent in May.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, issues its

August outlook at the start of the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane

season - August through October - and includes activity over the Atlantic

Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.



Forecasters say they adjusted their prediction due to atmospheric and

oceanic conditions across the Atlantic Basin that favor storm development

combined with the strong early season activity.

"Leading indicators for an above-normal season during 2008 include the

continuing multi-decadal signal - atmospheric and oceanic conditions that

have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 - and the lingering

effects of La Niña," said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane

forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

The updated outlook includes a 67 percent chance of 14 to 18 named storms.


Seven to 10 of those storms are expected to become hurricanes, including

three to six major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher on the

Saffir-Simpson Scale.

These ranges encompass the entire hurricane season, which ends November

30, and include the five storms that have formed to date.

In May, the outlook called for 12 to 16 named storms, including six to

nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season has 11 named storms, including six

hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Bell explained that conditions favoring a forecast of more hurricanes

include "reduced wind shear, weaker trade winds, an active West African

monsoon system, the winds coming off of Africa and warmer-than-average

water in the Atlantic Ocean."

Another indicator favoring an above-normal hurricane season is a very

active July, the third most active since 1886. Even so, said Bell, there

is still a 10 percent chance of a near normal season and a five percent

chance of a below normal season.

The NOAA forecast is in line with a new prediction of increased hurricane

activity from meteorologists at Colorado State University.

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said Tuesday, "We foresee a very active

Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2008. We have raised our

forecast from our early June prediction. We anticipate an above-average

probability of United States major hurricane landfall."

"We expect full-season Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity

in 2008 to be approximately 190 percent of the long-term average," said

Klotzbach and Gray.

"We have raised our seasonal forecast from what was predicted in early

April and early June. This is due to a combination of a very active early

tropical cyclone season in the deep tropics and more favorable

hurricane-enhancing sea surface temperature and sea level pressure

patterns in the tropical Atlantic," they said.

By the numbers, the Colorado forecasters differ somewhat from the NOAA

predictions, but the general trend is the same.

"We estimate that the full 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have

about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 90

named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5

inte (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 11 inte

hurricane days (average is 5.0)."

The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall for the remainder of the

hurricane season is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period

average," said Klotzbach and Gray.



NOAA's hurricane outlook is a general guide to the expected level of

hurricane activity for the entire season. NOAA does not make seasonal

landfall predictions since hurricane landfalls are largely determined by

the weather patterns in place as a hurricane approaches.

Five named storms have formed so far this season.

Tropical Storm Arthur affected the Yucatan Peninsula in late May and early

June.

Bertha was a major hurricane and the longest-lived July storm on record,

lasting from July 3 through 20.

Tropical Storm Cristobal skirted the North Carolina coastline.

Dolly made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island, Texas

on July 25 with 120 mile per hour winds and heavy rain.

And on August 5, Tropical Storm Edouard struck the upper Texas coast.

"It is critical that everyone know the risk for your area, and have a plan

to protect yourself, your family and your property, or to evacuate if

requested by local emergency managers. Be prepared throughout the

remainder of the hurricane season," Bell said. "Even people who live

inland should be prepared for severe weather and flooding from a tropical

storm or a hurricane."





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